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Friday, September 24, 2004

India's demographic advantage

I have always believed this, and it is good to see others think the same.

The article is old [Sept, 2000] but so true!
|| crawled by kpowerinfinity, 4:40 am

3 Comments:

It is true that demographic advantage would lead to a better economy (see http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/99.pdf ). But a rapid population growth is anyway not good for any economy because it simply wipes out a big pie out of GDP growth rate.(For Ex, A popualtion growth rate of 2.4% annually and a GDP growth rate rate of 8% would mean a per capita GDP growth rate of only 5.6%. A country would be more well off with a population growth rate of 1% and a GDP growth rate of 7%( hence pcGDP growth rate of 6%). This population growth would be good for US investors who will enjoy profits proportional to 8% but not for the indians who'll get a pcGDP growth of 5.6%.
Ajit...
Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:18 am  
It is true that demographic advantage would lead to a better economy (see http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/99.pdf ). But a rapid population growth is anyway not good for any economy because it simply wipes out a big pie out of GDP growth rate.(For Ex, A popualtion growth rate of 2.4% annually and a GDP growth rate rate of 8% would mean a per capita GDP growth rate of only 5.6%. A country would be more well off with a population growth rate of 1% and a GDP growth rate of 7%( hence pcGDP growth rate of 6%). This population growth would be good for US investors who will enjoy profits proportional to 8% but not for the indians who'll get a pcGDP growth of 5.6%.
Ajit...
Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:18 am  
Ajit, thank you for dropping by.

I read the pdf link you gave, and it is really informative.

However, I do feel that you missted the essence of the story. It says that right now India has the highest young population in the world, while peoples in other countries are growing old very fast [See the graph on page 8 of the pdf]. So, India is very well poised to take on the mantle of supplying workforce to the world. And that is its demographic advantage.

I do agree that further population growth will only reduce India's ability to look after itself, but if we prepare well, we could well see prosperity!

Btw, pls drop you link, so that we can visit your pages in future.
Blogger kpowerinfinity, at 1:07 am  

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